Our NBA team of Chris Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello is here throughout the 2024 Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks offering up their moneyline, spread, and total expert picks, and it all gets underway on Thursday night with Game 1 at the TD Garden.
Let's take a look at all of their picks for this series opener on June 6.
(Related Link) NBA Finals 2024: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Preview, Betting Odds
Jump To Picks
- Chris Walder's Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Spread
- Chris Walder's Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics OVER/UNDER
- David Caraviello's Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Spread
- Nick Holz's Pick: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Spread
Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 1 Preview & Picks
Matchup Page: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics, 8:30 p.m. ET
Same-Game Parlay: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 1
Player Props: Dallas Mavericks vs. Boston Celtics Game 1
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | +6.5 (-110) | +200 | O 214.5 (-110) |
| Boston Celtics | -6.5 (-110) | -250 | U 214.5 (-110) |
Christopher Walder's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS +6.5 (-110)
One team is a thriving beast in the ATS market, while the other struggles to cover against inferior, depleted competition. For a fresh series following significant time off, it's best to lean towards the trends.
Dallas is riding a wave of success on this front, having covered the spread in four of its last five games without failing to do so in consecutive games this entire postseason. Boston, meanwhile, despite riding a seven-game winning streak SU, only covered twice during that stretch.
The 6.5-point spread is the largest underdog mark of the playoffs for the Mavericks, who can take solace in the fact that they're 5-1 in both SU and ATS as a betting underdog in the playoffs with five-straight wins on both accounts. All five of those wins came away from the American Airlines Center, as well.
The Mavericks did fail to cover in Game 1 against both the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder before finally managing to do so against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Now the Celtics blew out the Miami Heat and Cleveland Cavaliers in their respective openers by a combined margin of 22.5 points, but both teams missed key components of their rosters which isn't the case for Dallas.
The pair of regular season results between these two sides ended in wins for Boston of at least nine points, with the most recent coming by 28. Don't look too much into that considering the stakes are significantly greater now. The Celtics are allowing 5.6 more points per 100 possessions at home than they do on the road, and Dallas is blessed with a litany of players who can make them pay if the defense isn't up to par.
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Christopher Walder's Pick: UNDER 214.5 Total Points (-110)
Boston and the Indiana Pacers strung together three-straight OVERs from Games 1 through 3 in the Eastern Conference finals before coming back down to earth for a more methodical Game 4 as the Celtics felt pressure to close and the Pacers needed everything to fall to stay alive, which wasn't ultimately the case.
Dallas has also reached the OVER in five of its last six outings, surprisingly so with four OVERs versus the defense-heavy Timberwolves, although oddsmakers were tame with some of the total props getting released for wagers.
In Game 1s this postseason, the UNDER has hit more often than not with an overall record of 6-8 in its favor. In an effort to feel out the opposition and not put all of their chips in the middle of the table too early, I can see Game 1 on Thursday taking the slow and steady approach as opposed to being a run-and-gun affair out of the gate.
David Caraviello's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS +6.5 (-110)
Boston is a negative moneyline favorite to win the NBA Finals, and indeed it’s tough to argue with a 12-2 outright playoff record to this point. But the Celtics suffered both of those losses at home, and haven’t been great against the spread, covering just two of their last eight. Dallas meanwhile has covered five of its last seven, and has been an outstanding play on the road—where the Mavericks have won their last five, including the Western Conference clincher in Minnesota.
Nick Holz's Pick: Boston Celtics ATS -6.5 (-110)
History is on the Celtics side for this series, and in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Since 2020, home teams who are also favorites are on a heck of a run, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS. Heading into the 2024 NBA Finals, favorites are 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS in the last 18 games.
Over the last 33 finals, favorites are 22-11 ATS in Game 1. Moreover, favorites of between six and eight points are 10-3 ATS in Game 1 since 1990.
That's enough for me. With Kristaps Porzingis returning to the lineup, ride with the Celtics depth and NBA Finals experience to come to the forefront as they cover the 6.5-point spread in Game 1.
